It's known that some businesses won't open until September - that's the current target for sports stadiums, for example.
Even after September, there will be a lot of unknowns with massive economic implications. Will cruising recover in 1 year, or in 10 years? How much more friction will there be on international travel, and for how long? What's the risk of a coronavirus resurgence, both globally and locally? How different will the new crop of small businesses be from the ones that got eliminated in the shutdown? If you're going to give a startup huge chunks of cash, you need a high degree of confidence in the mid-term future, and in most areas that won't be available for a while.
I hope cruising only recovers with big reforms including:
* Cruise firms pay their taxes and aren't allowed to use flags of convenience
* They're required to look after and pay their staff properly
* They're required to dramatically improve their fuel usage and efficiency
* They're required to protect the environment, in particular their mooring and waste disposal practices
* They're required to improve their onboard sanitation so that the spread of noroviruses, bacterial infections and other transmission is much better filtered and controlled.
Even after September, there will be a lot of unknowns with massive economic implications. Will cruising recover in 1 year, or in 10 years? How much more friction will there be on international travel, and for how long? What's the risk of a coronavirus resurgence, both globally and locally? How different will the new crop of small businesses be from the ones that got eliminated in the shutdown? If you're going to give a startup huge chunks of cash, you need a high degree of confidence in the mid-term future, and in most areas that won't be available for a while.