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> Supply is also dropping as tons of homeowners are refinancing, which balances out any drop in demand.

Can you explain this? How does refinancing affect housing supply?



Refinancing and selling your home are both ways to get cash. The best time to refinance is when 1) rates are at their lowest 2) your home value is at its highest and 3) you can get good ROI on that cash. Typically people look for ROI either by investing it in the currently down market or using it for down payment on a second rental property.

All three of those apply at this moment so record numbers of people have been getting refi’s this month. When fed rates eventually go up perhaps next year people will shift back to selling, or simply holding while they wait for their perceived home value to recover. Either way you have less people selling homes.

Not an expert - this is just what has been explained to me so take it with a grain of salt. Also this falls apart if the market is flooded with foreclosures.




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