Long before this happened a US government cable analyzed Egypt and said that the military would do little to protect Mubarak as long as their economic interests were not threatened. Right now the military is facing major disruption to its economic interests as long as the protests continue. But if they transition to a new government, they can reduce the disruption.
Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy.
Why? Well when the Camp David accords brought about peace, Egypt no longer needed such a big military. But they didn't want to make all of those men go into the private sector at once, that could destabilize the country. So they found jobs for them. For example lots of wonderful beaches no longer needed to be filled with military bases to repel a possible Israeli attack, so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran.
So Mubarak is out. He can't protect the military's commercial interests. Whoever and whatever replaces him is fine as long as the military interests are maintained. The changes can be extensive, so long as the country goes back to work and the military is free to return to making money.
>so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran.
Any sources for this? The Sinai peninsula did not have many military bases (certainly not Egyptian ones) on the coastline. Are you referring to another area?
There are military checkpoints like every few kilometers on the sinai peninsula. Quite disruptive to have to get questioned 30+ times in a 7 hour journey from Sharm El' Sheik to Cairo
I know the military checkpoints - I spent some of my childhood there and still visit every few years. But these aren't "military bases turned beach resorts".
> Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy.
Long before this happened a US government cable analyzed Egypt and said that the military would do little to protect Mubarak as long as their economic interests were not threatened. Right now the military is facing major disruption to its economic interests as long as the protests continue. But if they transition to a new government, they can reduce the disruption.
Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy.
Why? Well when the Camp David accords brought about peace, Egypt no longer needed such a big military. But they didn't want to make all of those men go into the private sector at once, that could destabilize the country. So they found jobs for them. For example lots of wonderful beaches no longer needed to be filled with military bases to repel a possible Israeli attack, so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran.
So Mubarak is out. He can't protect the military's commercial interests. Whoever and whatever replaces him is fine as long as the military interests are maintained. The changes can be extensive, so long as the country goes back to work and the military is free to return to making money.