> The looming climate crisis will be to this century what the two world wars were to the previous one.
I don't think so. WWII was a war between two fronts. Climate change affects countries very differently. The ones not affected much will unlikely contribute. My guess is that everyone to his own in this one.
> experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders who ride this wave to popularity.
I don't think it'll be more than experiments. Capital is very sensitive to being grabbed by government for the benefit of the "people". My guess is that we'll see countries that try to have their industries collapse; while other countries letting that capital flow to them.
> China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower
China is doomed to fail in the long run. Not sure if it's going to happen in the next decade or later, though. But it'd be all good and hopefully democracy is established.
> Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move.
This was already tried and failed. Crypto-currencies have no meaning without the decentralized factor. Governments will never be able to establish their crypto due to the fact that they want to control the underlying.
> Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies
Kinda related to the point above. Countries with low taxes are going to boom further as western countries are tightening their fiscal game.
> A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc.
I, very, believe this one and hope it happens in the next decade.
Witness what’s going on in Hong Kong? There’s plenty of speculation that what’s happening there is being funded or supported by an opposing party in China. Older generations are also implicitly supporting protestors there very carefully. The young college kids are who everyone sees but there is a lot happening behind the curtain.
China has had multiple generations of unrest. It isn’t just the young generation that is ready for change.
I wouldn’t say China itself is doomed but communism there might be.
The older generation in Hong Kong, if my friends there are in any way representative (all adults at 97 handover, like me) in what they tell me, simply hold the same resentments they did in 98, 99, 00 etc for the changes China has made to their home and how it is governed, and the constant chipping away at what they have. Some of those friends have been out on the marches and protests across the years, not just 2019's. First demo in favour of universal suffrage was probably in 98 when China dismantled the electoral system for the LegCo and replaced with the pro-Beijing weighted system. Universal suffrage of the Chief Exec was promised right back then.
It doesn't need an opposing mainland party to explain HK. There may be, but I see little evidence for it.
Demographics if nothing else. I am now betting that China is going to grow old before it becomes rich, I think they made a good try but will end up losing that race. China has a gender imbalance that is going to cause serious problems over the next decade, both due to social disruptions caused by a staggering cohort of men who will never find brides and by the hit these 'missing families' will have on the next generation.
I don't think so. WWII was a war between two fronts. Climate change affects countries very differently. The ones not affected much will unlikely contribute. My guess is that everyone to his own in this one.
> experiments to reallocate wealth and income more equitably will produce a new generation of world leaders who ride this wave to popularity.
I don't think it'll be more than experiments. Capital is very sensitive to being grabbed by government for the benefit of the "people". My guess is that we'll see countries that try to have their industries collapse; while other countries letting that capital flow to them.
> China will emerge as the world’s dominant global superpower
China is doomed to fail in the long run. Not sure if it's going to happen in the next decade or later, though. But it'd be all good and hopefully democracy is established.
> Countries will create and promote digital/crypto versions of their fiat currencies, led by China who moves first and benefits the most from this move.
This was already tried and failed. Crypto-currencies have no meaning without the decentralized factor. Governments will never be able to establish their crypto due to the fact that they want to control the underlying.
> Asian crypto exchanges, unchecked by cumbersome regulatory restraints in Europe and the US and leveraging decentralized finance technologies
Kinda related to the point above. Countries with low taxes are going to boom further as western countries are tightening their fiscal game.
> A decentralized internet will emerge, led initially by decentralized infrastructure services like storage, bandwidth, compute, etc.
I, very, believe this one and hope it happens in the next decade.