Given that "European Commision fines" is its own bullet point under "Costs and Expenses" in Alphabet's latest quaterly report, that view sounds about right.

The GDPR does consider willful violations and a pattern of behavior.

4% the first time might be something you can shrug off, especially for a company the size of Google. But if you continue breaking the law and give the regulators an easy second or third bite at the apple...

I’d expect Google makes no changes and fights the regulators the first few times.

E: I used to have a comment here about Google continuing their current practices against non-EU people but it appears from my reading of the GDPR that may not be so simple