Also, it really could be an attack. It's within the realm of plausibility for country 1 to launch a nudging vehicle to push a space rock into a collision course with country 2.
Eh maybe. It strains plausibility. We can't even accurately predict where deorbiting satellites will end up... It's pretty hard to imagine a nudge with the required delta-V and accuracy to hit a specific nation. Too far away and you get too much uncertainty, too close and you don't have enough dV for the push. Even if it could be done with today's technology, the potential for error is high, and if you screw up, you've accidentally started another war or "bombed" your own country. Can't imagine that a military with the requisite technology to pull this off wouldn't be able to think of a less-risky way to obliterate their enemy.
”We can't even accurately predict where deorbiting satellites will end up...”
I think that’s because they are so small. The impact of earth’s atmosphere on a 100m solid rock will be negligible in comparison.
Their speed perpendicular to earth also is very low, meaning they spend more time in the athmosphere. I guess they may even bounce of it a couple of times. If so, computing impact location requires calculating how many times a skipping stone will skip.
(But no, I don’t think we have the technology to make this an effective weapon. I would go for that rail gun on the moon instead. Still not quite within reach, but it would be a lot easier to get targeting accuracy)
