Quoting Musk is probably the worst example you can give. His track record for prediction isn't great.
You're right that it is hard to predict how long R&D takes, but governments are different than companies. Companies have a lifespan in decades, possibly a few centuries (if you're REALLY really lucky and pivot a lot). Profits are focused at the yearly level and long shots are decades out. Governments on the other hand generally have much longer lifespans. Decades are short periods of time for them. Investing in things that will pay off in a century is great business here (lots of science and math falls into this category). This is the problem. People are comparing how companies operate to how governments operate. They have completely different agendas, priorities, and operate at completely different time scales.
Quoting Musk is probably the worst example you can give. His track record for prediction isn't great.
You're right that it is hard to predict how long R&D takes, but governments are different than companies. Companies have a lifespan in decades, possibly a few centuries (if you're REALLY really lucky and pivot a lot). Profits are focused at the yearly level and long shots are decades out. Governments on the other hand generally have much longer lifespans. Decades are short periods of time for them. Investing in things that will pay off in a century is great business here (lots of science and math falls into this category). This is the problem. People are comparing how companies operate to how governments operate. They have completely different agendas, priorities, and operate at completely different time scales.