Would Microsoft really offer something substantially more than $15 Billion? Their last investment never really was a $15 Billion valuation because MS received an advertising deal as well as stock in exchange for their money, but I would think Facebook would demand a substantial premium over that $15B anyway.
I think an acquisition of Facebook won't happen, partly because I don't think Zuckerberg is interested in selling, and that's why the sale didn't go through before when MS and Yahoo offered over a billion. But the other reason I think it won't happen is because Facebook's valuation is really hard to peg right now, before we see what kind of stuff is really built with their platform. If multiple hundered-million-dollar companies and maybe a billion-dollar company or two are built from Facebook Apps, than FB is probably significantly undervalued at $15B. However, if the Facebook platform continues to primarily be a way to throw sheep at people and provide an outlet for widgets from companies that were already valuable before Facebook (Slide, RockYou), $15B is probably too much. It therefore might make sense for all parties to wait and see what happens.
>>> I think an acquisition of Facebook won't happen, partly because I don't think Zuckerberg is interested in selling, and that's why the sale didn't go through before when MS and Yahoo offered over a billion.
The sale didn't go through BECAUSE they offered him one billion. I'm sure if they came along with more a couple of years ago, he would have sold.
Personally, I hope they IPO. That stock will be amazing to short after the IPO pushes the stock price at least 50% higher than it should be.
I think an acquisition of Facebook won't happen, partly because I don't think Zuckerberg is interested in selling, and that's why the sale didn't go through before when MS and Yahoo offered over a billion. But the other reason I think it won't happen is because Facebook's valuation is really hard to peg right now, before we see what kind of stuff is really built with their platform. If multiple hundered-million-dollar companies and maybe a billion-dollar company or two are built from Facebook Apps, than FB is probably significantly undervalued at $15B. However, if the Facebook platform continues to primarily be a way to throw sheep at people and provide an outlet for widgets from companies that were already valuable before Facebook (Slide, RockYou), $15B is probably too much. It therefore might make sense for all parties to wait and see what happens.