I also agree with Mr. Buffett that the next 100 years for American businesses will be the best....makes me think China won't usurp America anytime soon.
Next 100 years for American business will be the best if China usurps America and others like India follow. Countries have their comparative advantages, and returns to scale and network effects increase the pot for everyone.
I fully agree with this thinking in general, countries don't lose because other countries are growing, quite the opposite.
However, in the case of the US there's the caveat that it runs the world's reserve currency, controls the petrodollar, and is able to strongarm other countries into accepting its domestic banking laws (through the likes of FATCA).
That situation is unlikely to persist for the next 100 years, which is going to be disproportionately bad for the US economy.
> However, in the case of the US there's the caveat that it runs the world's reserve currency, controls the petrodollar,
This is something that is just said and 'known' to be true without people looking into what it means and how big the effect is.
It harms US exports (USD exchange rate is artificially high) but it helps US finances. Generally it seems to have slight net positive effect. By no means is it fundamentally important for US economy. In the normal year, the reserve currency effect is estimated to be between 0.3 to 0.5 percent of US GDP. In bad year much less.
