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I've seen this story about the Cavendish banana for close to 20 years now. I think the first time was on Slashdot in the late nineties or early aughts. Every time, the article predicts the imminent death of the varietal.

The articles always make a persuasive case. So, why hasn't it happened yet? What is the crucial detail that these articles always leave out?



> So, why hasn't it happened yet? What is the crucial detail that these articles always leave out?

This article makes the point. The fungus has no quick propogation methods, as it's only spread by moving infected earth: it's simply very resilient once established.

So the last X years have been a slow motion "We know this is a problem. It's becoming a bigger and bigger problem. Eventually it will be an insurmountable problem."

The article also notes that there were a substantial number of "flex years" the last time this happened, as deforestation was used to open up new, un-infected land for banana cultivation.

In summary: it's like the IPv6 problem.

We knew it was coming, but resource exhaustion takes time.


I love how a parallel can be drawn between bananas and IPV6


Inedible Plantains Version 6?


Innocuous Plantains Version 6.


Thank you so much, this is the first time I’ve seen this explained in terms I fully grasp. I was getting to the point of wondering whether or not these articles were submarines, but your explanation is far more cogent.


Glad it helped. I think it's easy to lose switches of change time magnitude when we're mostly looking at silicon / software.

Biology, ecology, geology, and cosmology all work on their own timescales. :)


Knowing it's a real problem actually comforts me to an extent. If we can slow these kinds of things down, then we can win the race of making new varieties.


By then, can't we just CRISPR the fix into banana?


Someone's already done that... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6

Still has to go through all the usual trials, etc, before it can be grown commercially, and then there'd be questions over GM regulation, market-acceptance, and whether the crop is productive and easy to manage for commercial growers to sort. (Usual productisation questions for a new crop variety to have to jump through.)


Also, concerns about the long term (decades+) results of fixing similar issue by only splicing new genes in.

Nature exploits opportunities. If we're still planting monocultures of cloned plants (plus whatever genes), that's still going to be enticing prey. See: Roundup resistant weeds.

And life, as they say, finds a way.


I'm not sure that fungus gains anything evolutionarily meaningful from learning to infect this particular banana.

The only thing you get from this is annoying humans, which doesn't sound a very good evolutionary strategy (second only to being used in Chinese traditional medicine)


People have gone to great lengths to stop the propagation of the disease. Up to the point that entire fields are destroyed, and lands abandoned (for bananas) for years.


Probably because there's still plenty of virgin rainforest to clear for new banana fields.


What a relief, all we have to do is chop down the rest of the rainforests? Here I thought you were going to say something hard.


Well it's something we're already doing anyway, might as well get a few more years worth of bananas out of it!


Indeed. Here's us discussing basically the same story almost exactly 90 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15425918

I honestly think this story recurs so often not because it's comparatively important, but because it's a grabby hook of a story and because James Dale of the Queensland University of Technology (who is quoted in every instance of the story I've seen) has an incredibly tenacious publicist.


I've also heard the same thing about killer bees in California and IPv4. Basically don't trust "experts". Experts typically misunderstand actual risk, and they generally forget about how innovative humans are when we need to be.


If we should not trust experts then who should we trust?


Whoever says want we want to hear




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