> Buybacks can work just as well if you are buying back at the right price. A lot of management teams are bad at capital allocation and buyback stock at 52 week highs - that is almost always incredibly stupid.
The stock price for buybacks doesn't matter, if you only care about getting money back into investors' hands.
Incorrect. If your stock is overvalued, a buyback is an inefficient and destructive method for getting money back into shareholders hands. You would be better off giving a special dividend instead.
If you spend $100M buying back stock at the top of the market and then the next year, the bubble pops and your stock is down 50% was that really good capital allocation?
For every dollar you spent, you have effectively lost 50 cents. Sears admitted as much back in 2007 when they were buying back stock at $180 only to watch it drop to $90 a few months later. Remember, the idea with buybacks is to reduce overall share count so that you boost EPS and in turn your share price.
The amount you can retire might double if you simply wait out a bubble period. That's why dividends and buybacks need to be looked at relative to where the stock valuation is. When your stock is trading at a peak valuation, if you want to release value to shareholders, you are much better off using a dividend than a buyback.
You can play the stock market, and you can put money back into investors pockets.
If you want managers to play the stock market, your comments are spot on--but you shouldn't restrict them to buying only shares of their own company. If they are good at predicting when valuations are high and going lower, or the other way round, you should open an investment fund and profit from their expertise.
Most companies aren't in the business of playing the stock market.
If you just want to transfer money from the company to the stock holders, you can either issue dividends or buy back shares at any time there's excess cash. Apart from taxation issues, there's no difference between share buy-backs and dividends in terms of getting money back to the investors.
The stock price for buybacks doesn't matter, if you only care about getting money back into investors' hands.