"2) The SP 500 adds and subtracts companies as they grow, fold and go bankrupt. So the only way this would be maybe work is if you invested in the ETF."
First of all, it's not the ETF, it's an ETF. And this isn't exactly news - this is the basic method of investing always recommended (alternatively, an index fund, which is similar).
"3) Macro-economic events are notoriously hard to predict and anticipate, and your returns are very much tied to how you time your entry point. If you invested in the beginning of 2008, you would have a 33% return, same for a 2001 entry. In the beginning of 2009, around 100%."
Well, yes, but this is kind of the point of the article. It shows what is the chance of coming out ahead out of any 20 year period in the last 100 years.
"This is the problem that you get when Warren Buffet fools you into "buy and hold". Yes, it has worked for him, but he is an insanely great investor. You can't replicate his returns. You can't even sniff his returns."
Warren Buffet doesn't "buy and hold", but he recommends it for most people exactly because it's relatively easy, and gives you very good returns.
"2) The SP 500 adds and subtracts companies as they grow, fold and go bankrupt. So the only way this would be maybe work is if you invested in the ETF."
First of all, it's not the ETF, it's an ETF. And this isn't exactly news - this is the basic method of investing always recommended (alternatively, an index fund, which is similar).
"3) Macro-economic events are notoriously hard to predict and anticipate, and your returns are very much tied to how you time your entry point. If you invested in the beginning of 2008, you would have a 33% return, same for a 2001 entry. In the beginning of 2009, around 100%."
Well, yes, but this is kind of the point of the article. It shows what is the chance of coming out ahead out of any 20 year period in the last 100 years.
"This is the problem that you get when Warren Buffet fools you into "buy and hold". Yes, it has worked for him, but he is an insanely great investor. You can't replicate his returns. You can't even sniff his returns."
Warren Buffet doesn't "buy and hold", but he recommends it for most people exactly because it's relatively easy, and gives you very good returns.