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Yes, and you can also be be right most of the time, and have below market returns because of transaction costs or management fees.


This is the big point.

Investment houses don't start from the same place as an index fund. Their returns are penalized from the start due to the fee structure. So not only do they have to beat the market, they have to do it by a sizeable margin before the end user sees a profit advantage.

For a retail investor it is hard to justify not choosing an index fund.




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