It's entry-level obscenely rich club.

What do you think is a valid doomer warning that came true? Or do you think literally everything that is pessimistic is doomerism?

You're asking the wrong person. I haven't seen a single example of a doomer warning that came true. Can you provide one? It seems like society still exists when I look out the window and the impact that doomers assert are greatly exaggerated in every instance.

> Only the very dumbest think “doom” is some apocalyptic scene from a Hollywood film in which humans are nearly wiped out.

So you're all just out here telling everybody they should stop what they are doing because of the doom, but the doom isn't that impactful in the grand scheme of things?

That checks out with my understanding of doomers. Just a bunch of useless whiners that produce a bunch of meaningless noise for everybody else.

> “Doom” is instead when swaths of Roman citizens with rights amidst a powerful, civically and technologically impressive hegemony, over time find themselves reduced to unfree serfs. They and their descendants would remain in that position for centuries until a horrific disease came through and killed so many of them that the serfdom became untenable.

And look at where we are now. Rome has been surpassed many times over. The quality of life for the average living person is FAR SURPASSED anything that anybody in Rome could dream of. Seems like it wasn't worth worrying about what happened in Rome. If you make "doom" some kind of local event that affects a small group of people in a short window of time while trying to tell everybody they should hit the brakes and pause - maybe you should reflect on how these two things contradict each other.

In other words, if the doom isn't that doomful in the grand scheme of things then your argument is just again, moving goalposts. There are clear examples for every doom scenario you're talking about where the world moved on and built bigger and better. I guess it's on you to wait until that's no longer true but until then the ball is in your court. Just realize that you should at some point reflect and realize that every swing and miss is just more evidence that doomers are consistently wrong about the impact of their observations.

How is China bad? Their education system did take them from absolute poverty to #2 superpower in a few decades.

Oh, no it is very impressive.

I mean from a moral and "care about me" perspective.

Yes Trump bad but USA has done more for EU than China.

Raw test scores are a good idea in many countries because it reduces scope for corruption + gives even the poorest kids a chance. Though I would argue there needs to be multiple chances a year and not just 1.

> potentially more intelligent than the poorest group

It's easy to think this but its not true. There is just a ton of privilege involved in life. There are groups in India who purely tutor slum kids to the top IITs(the JEE exams in India are very hard).

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_30

They said "on average". Selecting 30 of the most talented from the poorest group does not contradict that.

On average more educated? Yes. More intelligent? Nah I see no data. Given the same access to resources I expect the kid from a poor family and a kid from a rich family to perform similarly.

I do not. Where do unintelligent people exist in your society?

And at a certain point the argument about equal access is entirely hypothetical. For example can’t redo early childhood. So if that impacts your ability then it’s been impacted.

> Where do unintelligent people exist in your society?

Everywhere? Both in rich and poor households.

> For example can’t redo early childhood. So if that impacts your ability then it’s been impacted.

Ah I thought the argument was more about genes(aka born smart) and not something like nutrition.

I think a good thought experiment is Formula 1. Most top F1 racers come from super rich backgrounds. Does that mean that more money == better driver? Its mostly a accessibility problem.

Which premise do you disagree with?

1. Financial and career success are correlated with good test skills.

2. Good test skills are strongly influenced by genetics or early childhood.

If you agree with both then you expect some correlation between wealth and test performance.

I disagree that being born to rich parents == you have better genetics.

It's mostly privilege. And just being born in America is one of the biggest privileges wrt career and wealth.

Well I’ll be charitable and interpret == as correlation as we are talking about averages.

From your conclusion you’re telling me wealth is completely random or the capabilities of children is completely random. Neither of those holds up to any scrutiny.

I don’t know what being born in the US has to do with the conversation.

Sorry I’m not familiar with Indian culture and power structures.

Not surprised because most people in the world only have time to work/commute/sleep. Stuff like hobbies, sabbaticals, vacations, etc are quite rare. I've only seen the contrary when I met Europeans.

Domestic tourism is massive even in countries with terrible work culture like China, so your claim is not particularly strong. Either way, hobbies and holidays are certainly not unique to NA and Europe.

1. There are far worse places to work than China :)

2. I was comparing everyone against EU. NA included.

I don't think your initial claim is well supported considering the size of domestic travel and entertainment sectors in most of the world (although I'll admit that the way people allocate non-work activities in many places may not lead to a relaxed life in the way, say, a Swiss person on a sabbatical has). Points 1 and 2 in this recent comment are different ones again, though and not ones I disagree with.

Not so sure about hobbies being a European thing. Take Japan, for example. Japan has a work culture/pressure which is considered pretty extreme (Korea is maybe worse, from what I read). I know people with work hours from early morning to 11pm, and a neighbor who drives out at 5:30am and is back way after dark): There are many more people with active hobbies than in my native Europe. With work taking so much time, people seem to learn to manage their time much better than many (much more than I can, definitely) and they squeeze in various hobbies in a very efficient way. That's one of the reasons I like living there, there's much more to do together with other people.

Nah,

All around the world, even people in the lower income brakets take vacation. Sometimes they travel if they can, sometimes they don't.

Working until you wear off is mostly a US thing.

Huh? I value myself and my family at infinity. Meaning no-one else or no amount of money can replace them. So no we are in fact extremely non disposable and non replaceable to the people we love.

It's a M1 Macbook Air substitute with significantly better single core performance. Any comparison with a chromebook is just hilarious.

Are you confident this war is targeting a regime change vs causing a failed state scenario?

> Are you confident this war is targeting a regime change vs causing a failed state scenario?

To the best of my knowledge, yes. Iranian people are the most pro-West people in the middle east. It's in the US's interest to support them for a better future, and we've seen successful examples of this in the past in Germany, South Korea, Japan, etc.

Not every country should be compared to Iraq and Syria.

I hope it's true. Middle east interventions have all led to failed state scenarios so far. And I doubt this administration is smart enough to do whats best for the US. End of day I guess Israel decides the outcome of this particular war. But yeah we will know in a few months.

Exactly. I very much doubt Israel is willing to entertain the possibility that a new Iranian government won't have any "animosity" towards them.

Fairness matters because the only way we can collectively decide to reduce emissions is if people everywhere feel its fair.