I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how bonds work. What you are saying is mostly true, BUT the coupon rate is set at bond issuance. Meaning if you own a bond now, and coupon rates go up because of an event, your rate does not magically adjust. When event like you describe happens, it means it's a good time to enter the bond market.
What Dalio is saying is that currently real returns on bond are rock bottom or even negative. So why would you own them? He's not saying to NEVER own bonds, just that it currently does not make sense. If in the future, bond coupon rates increase, then it will once again make sense to own bonds.
Companies preparing to IPO start 'reporting earnings' internally a few years in advance. This is because of both SEC requirements and expectations of the banks working on the IPO. While quarterly earnings reports would not be publicly available, AirBnB certainly does do them internally.
In effect, Condé Nast does still own Reddit. Advance Publications is the holding company which owns the Conde Nast properties (Conde Nast, Conde Nast International, Conde Nast Entertainment, and Reddit).
When Condé Nast originally bought reddit, there was an outcry about how Condé Nast was going to ruin reddit. People thought Condé Nast was just going to pump their magazine content (GQ, Vogue, New Yorker, Wired, many more...) on reddit.
In order to prove this wasn't going to happen, Conde Nast reincorporated Reddit as its own company and moved it under its parent holding company (Advance Publications).
Advance Publications is to Conde Nast what Alphabet is to Google.
Also one thing to note is that Reddit has employees within Conde Nast's head quarters. Its not like they are trying to hide their ownership. They just changed the structure of the ownership to prove Reddit still controls Reddit.
As a junior engineer, what the best way to learn about and master the political game? I feel like it all goes way over my head. Does anyone have any recommended reading?
I think the author said it in the article: Optimize for promotion. Work from day 1 to game the metrics. If it helps your metrics, do it, if it doesn't approach with caution.
If you start that from day 1 you'd be 2 years ahead of the author.
Honestly, it sounds like a really shitty way to live. I personally prefer doing great work and having faith that it will work out.
It has, a lot slower than that, but I'm proud of the work I've done and enjoy my work daily.
There's another position that's similar but less gross, which is to have some humility about what you think is important vs. what work your manager/manager's manager think is important. Try to work on what they think is important not (just) because of a cynical desire to game the system and get ahead, but because they have probably more experience and (often a lot more) context than you do.
Of course, this only works if you have managers you feel like you can trust and respect in the first place.
That's definitely true too. There's a lot of developers who spend way more time beautifying code than they actually do driving the business. While sometimes great code leads to great business results, that's not a law of nature. The inverse and converse can certainly be true too.
Spot on. Most organizations spend time on how to do thinks than actually doing it. What i found out was to get some data as soon as possible, even if it has large caveats. That is more important than getting it right, becaude you wont.
I mean, there's a balance you can definitely reach. In alot of organizations, depending on the process, playing some Machiavellian game in order to try to get promoted the quickest is going to backfire.
But that doesn't mean you should be consistently selfless all the time. If you think the projects you are working on aren't going to get you promoted, discuss it with your manager. Tell them some of your thoughts, and if they aren't amenable to giving you other work, consider moving to a different part of the organization.
To add on to this, many jobs won't have good metrics in place, so promotion will depend on emotion and cognitive biases. Learning how to work these two factors is crucial.
You can do half and half. You don't have to game everything to make sure it boosts your metrics, but you also have to make sure you're not doing nothing that boosts your metrics.
Googler here: I think that gaming metrics is not that easy. Here by metrics I mean things like:
- Your impact on revenue (if you work in ads)
- Your impact on search quality (as assesed by independent raters)
- Etc.
If you can "game" these, I think you are solid.
My advice would be to try to come up with your own project ideas (related to what your or other very close team is already working on). Often times, people stick around in their teams for a long time and there is not much inovation -- you are a new guy can bring some fresh perspective.
People who get promoted the fastest are usually those who are self driven and start projects from their own initiative.
"optimize for promotion" is one way to frame but, but alternatively I'd suggest to only work on things you can prove to have value. You can do this by either actively convincing others it has value (politics) or more passively always relying on external validation of your judgement.
For example, if you see a problem, you should socialize a solution to that problem. If the feedback you get is "Yes, this is a problem, and that solution would be valuable", then go for it. Of the feedback is more meh in nature, then either convince people it is valuable or move on to something else.
Be organized in this process, write RFCs and design docs, document your conclusions. Then when it comes time to discuss impact, you will know (and can demonstrate) that you worked on impactful things.
As a senior engineer, I'd recommend not thinking about a "political game" most of the time.
Focus on demonstrable, measurable impact for your company's customers in the area that your team focuses on. If you do that, then you'll find that you're aligned with your boss and your boss's boss pretty much all the time.
You can argue for what you believe when you have data to back you up. If not, respect the judgment of your superiors. Figure out what your management chain wants to accomplish and then find the best measurable way to accomplish it. If you don't know. Ask.
Remember that the game is a long game. Software Development is unusual because many people expect to be "senior" 3-5 years out of college. In other fields, that will barely get you out of an apprenticeship.
I think about it this way:
1. Not all effort is equally valuable.
2. Not all value is equally visible/measureable
3. Not all value is equally aligned with your team/company's priorities
Find what efforts produce the most value that can be measured, in alignment with your company's priorities.
Usually when engineers feel like they have to "play the political game", they fall into one of these traps:
1. They are doing work that isn't actually valuable (e.g. an unprompted huge refactoring)
2. They are doing valuable work that is hard to measure (e.g. adding tests to a codebase without a plan to demonstrate improved developer velocity and/or product quality)
3. They are doing valuable, measurable work towards the wrong goals (e.g. building product-wide localization support without the company intending to localize their content)
The issue in Michael's case is not politics, and I don't know how HN gets on this stupid tangent about the "political game."
The issue--speaking as a Big Company engineer/manager--is quite obviously misalignment, either between Michael and his manager or between his manager and the committee.
If you don't know what your manager thinks is important or disagree with it, you have a problem. (Possible solutions: ask, argue, switch teams.) If your manager's priorities don't match the org's, you may also have a problem (depending on your manager's ability to protect you). (Again, possible solutions: discuss with your manager, discuss with your skip, move.)
The idea that there's a "political game" that you can play to get ahead is, mostly, belied by my experiences. It's probably true in some places some of the time, but it's unclear to me that it yields better results (faster promotion, greater happiness) than being smart and motivated.
I'm a young software developer and I recently got promoted to manager of my team. Honestly, I feel like I'm not good at politics. I never focused on it, and I'm not particularly social. Of course, you always need to be at the right place at the right time. I think the managers I've had at my current company are great, so that helps.
My advice would be to just try to keep people happy, primarily your manager and your manager's manager. Some people are saying to focus on metrics that make you look good, and that might work at some places, but it won't mean people enjoy working with you.
My advice? Be honest, don't be scared to admit when you're at fault, solve problems, help people when you can. Networking is great, but don't be the guy who only BSes and doesn't get things done. You need to be someone people like to work with. If someone needs to send someone else to you for whatever reason and they say "Go check with popcat, he's awesome and knows this really well", that person is going to see you in a positive light from the get-go. Reputation is more valuable than any metrics can be.
Also, communicate with your manager often. Suggest improvements, mention problems, and ask for advice. Put yourself in their shoes - What you you want them to tell you if you we're the boss? Listen to podcasts like Manager Tools if you want to gain knowledge of large companies operate. It will be a huge help when trying to land a big raise or promotion.
Technically sure, but that's not what people generally mean when they say "politics." Crappy politics is where you become friends with the "right" people, or throw the "wrong" people under the bus, or where you adapt your behavior to look good, instead of doing actually good things. Parent comment is saying instead you could consider how your actions can positively impact someone else, rather than just telling people what to do and what to give you. The latter is technically politics, but more generally is just the general way a good person interacts with the world. Think "win-win" from 7 habits of highly effective people.
Twenty years ago I worked as a contractor for a political operator inside an advanced tech part of IBM. He had plenty of technical chops, but more importantly he was a very good politician. We joked about us someday writing a book entitled "Rock Soup: The Art of Political Engineering". He told the rock soup story often, but it is more commonly known as the Stone Soup story. Study it carefully, as it describes some fundamental principles in an organization. When you are first starting out, you have ideas and energy but few resources. You must know how to paint a glowing picture of the future to those with necessary budget. Think of those people with budget as your internal VCs, except their risk tolerance is much less.
First thing is you need to actually be a good engineer. No point optimising if you suck, just put your head down and learn.
Next thing you need to know is the rules of the game in YOUR organisation. Every company is different and the rules are different. Google is unique, so at other companies the game is very different.
Then you need to move the needle on whatever matters. That might be improving metrics, that might mean becoming drinking buddies with the right people, it might be purposefully going to work for a failing team so you can be given the chance to take it over and prove yourself.
I don't buy all this. Do your best work. Be nice to others as much as humanly possible. Don't treat it as a game, you might end up losing and get disappointed. Don't get your hopes up too high. We can't control everything. Be thankful. And surprise, you might just get the promotion for being more of a human than a machine.
I’d call it a must not, because then you’d be the type of person who takes life advice from books such as “The 48 Laws of Power.” It’s not a good look for most people, and not a good way to think about the world, IMO.
I think you're right, but I'll add that it's a great book to read and understand in a sort of "better at protecting from hacks by hacking"-style of learning. Understand and learn about the darker way of thinking and how power works so that you can navigate around these issues.
A lot of the book is simply explaining Psychology of people trying to gain power or in power what you need to do so you can manage politics. Things like not making your boss look lesser than you or not realizing that, yes, everyone has their place and you can't just say whatever you want AND ALSO get whatever you want. For a lot of people this needs to be explained and proven and the stories in that book provide good, if not a bit hard to relate, examples of the laws.
(Reading the book now on Audible. Pretty interesting, but the parent is totally right that it advocates a pretty dark/negative world view.)
That’s fair, but readers should not assume that others are operating on these rules. I’m reminded of a conversation I had with a woman who bought a copy of The Game, at the recommendation of another woman, to “find out how guys think”, and it was difficult to explain why this was misinformed and would make her worse off.
Yes, all of Robert Greene's books are superb. Whether you buy into his philosophy and interpretations or not, there are many excellent, mind-expanding historical vignettes to learn.
My favorite book by him is The Art of Seduction, because it chronicles human motive in its most direct, unfiltered form. All influence is really thinly-veiled seduction.
To the grandparent, because I'm throttled on HN and probably won't be allowed to post much more, if this even goes through: the key to a successful career is the same as any other interpersonal success. Learn psychology and influence. Understand how other people see the world. However you see it, it's not how most other people see it. Resist the temptation to assume that your assumptions and defaults are valid for others.
You have to accept the existence of the game to really have success, but you don't necessarily have to embrace it. Indeed, many successful entrepreneurs are successful entrepreneurs because their personal tolerance for the game is sufficient to make sales, but not sufficient to suck up to a cadre of bosses for years on end.
Whatever you do, you will not be reasonably free until you get a baseline of "fuck you" money established and invested in a diverse set of safe, reliable instruments and institutions. Once this happens, take heed not to become too ostentatious and comfortable, or you will become Martin Shkreli; someone who didn't do anything actually wrong, but allowed himself to become the subject of the public's contempt. It is probably best to keep a low profile and live an unassuming lifestyle, grateful to be one of the few with freedom.
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P.S., tried to post, and yep, throttled. I can't post for some more time now; this is because I was politically imprudent and criticized YC darlings, including some companies they've invested in, on HN. I will save this and repost later.
Egalitarian facades from BigCo or PowerfulPerson are just that: a facade. And the people in power, no matter where their power lies, will be happy and cooperative as long as your conduct is biasing people in a direction that is favorable for them. But never expect them to sit idly by while you threaten or criticize them, even if the ultimate impact is small or indirect. They know that big collapses start out as small cracks, and they proactively and subtly work to stop these.
Never mistake the cooperation, praise, or accolades of a group or establishment as representing anything other than their satisfaction that your conduct is helpful to them in the immediate moment. One of the most common and simultaneously most fatal mistakes I see is the assumption that satisfaction with one's conduct is implicit or automatic. That past positive responses guarantee future positive responses. The truth is, no one cares about you personally. They like your thing because it gave them what they wanted. If you disregard that for your next thing, they will have no qualms whatsoever about dismissing or disregarding you.
Human response is a "hits business"; there is a formula that makes people happy. Meet that formula, and you will be rewarded. Deviate, and you won't. It is fickle, timing is important. Music, movies, and video games are all optimized "hits" businesses with billions of dollars at stake, and even they have misses more often than not.
Everyone is irrevocably and intrinsically self-interested, as a biologically-dictated matter of individual survival. Do not expect anything else. Do not try to fight this -- you can't. You cannot undo the eons of evolution that have dictated it. Good system design understands and incorporates this unchangeable reality by triggering psychological phenomena that are biologically interpreted as pro-survival when they're acting in concert with the system, and not doing so when they aren't.
Please note that despite the acknowledgment of this reality, this is not necessarily a nihilistic or pessimistic worldview. These things are not automatically bad. They are just components of the human psychological system that enables our survival. They can be used or abused, for good or for evil.
An insistence on remaining ignorant of human action and motive based on the religious tenet that "people are nice" only leaves one liable to more manipulation. That is exactly what the worst, most ravenous predators want, because it allows them to operate virtually undetected. All the better if they can get the duped to engage in a hostile charge against those who are finding enlightenment (and they usually can).
Anyone who wants to operate effectively within the system must know and understand it. Don't shy away from this reality. Accept it and use it for good. We have way too many timid people who have been programmed to take what they're given and shut up, and not to inquire into how the system works. It doesn't have to be that way.
What Dalio is saying is that currently real returns on bond are rock bottom or even negative. So why would you own them? He's not saying to NEVER own bonds, just that it currently does not make sense. If in the future, bond coupon rates increase, then it will once again make sense to own bonds.