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I have a regular reminder to use this every now and then because it lifts my mood consistenly :)


How do I get access to this?


Thanks!


I think it's a good argument to say that we don't know for sure. But people who are addicted to youtube today would probably have done something more meaningful in the 1990s, 2000s, 2010s...?


We speak with Ivan Vendrov about recommender systems and their impact on human attention and society & how these algorithms shape billions of hours of human time daily.


This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.


I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.


I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.


Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.


The explosions seem to have blown one wing off of the planes. That's not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild. I suspect that it's a factory-only level of rebuild, but I don't actually know.

It's at least months to years before they're operation again, or years to decades until the factory can make that many new ones.


> not destroyed - the main fuselage is there, and the other wing is attached - but it's in need of a major rebuild

> months to years before they're operation again

Good point!


That seems like the kind of problem that would be easily done through monte-carlo approximation? How hard is it to get 1M random rows in a postgres database?


ClickHouse has native support for sampling https://clickhouse.com/docs/sql-reference/statements/select/...



> Can a board member be reasonably responsible for the actions of tens of thousands of employees if they have not explicitly enabled or condoned criminal behaviour?

Not sure what the answer is, but if the answer is yes, then that incentivizes them to build the oversight and reporting capabilities to be able to steer away from crime, and to hire noncriminal subordinates &c.

One way this could look in practice is board members having to post a large bond that gets taken away if the commpany is found to commit crimes during their tenure.

Anecdotically, the Real Madrid requires a large bond (57M) posted by the president. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/europe/8076515.stm


I've seen this before, thought it was super interesting, kudos to the author. Leaving this comment for contrast with some other negative comments.


If you actually want to offer substantive contrast, then I'd suggest elaborating on what you find interesting.


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