I don't think the root cause here is AI. It's the repeated pattern of resistance to massive technological change by system-level incentives. This story has happened again and again throughout recent history.
I expect it to settle out in a few years where:
1. The fiduciary duties of company shareholders will bring them to a point of stopping to chase AI hype and instead derive an understanding of whether it's driving real top-line value for their business or not.
2. Mid to senior career engineers will have no choice but to level up their AI skills to stay relevant in the modern workforce.
the thing is, I tried it and it took 10 seconds to import all settings from cursor. the moat for vscode clones is really small. i imagine people will jump a lot from clone to clone, like from model to model now.
The DRC produces more than 70 per cent of the world supply of cobalt, which is essential for batteries used in electric cars, many laptop computers and mobile phones.
More than 200,000 people are estimated to be working in giant illegal cobalt mines in the giant central African country.
Winter is a cyclical concept, just like all the other seasons. It will be no different here; the pendulum swings back and forth. The unknown factor is the length of the cycle.
I still have to understand why you think another AI winter is coming.
Everyyyybody is using it, everybody is racing to invent the next big thing.
What could go wrong?
[apart from a market crash, more related to financial bubble than technical barriers]
> apart from a market crash, more related to financial bubble than technical barriers
_That is what an AI winter is_.
Like, if you look at the previous ones, it's a cycle of over-hype, over-promising, funding collapse after the ridiculous over-promising does not materialise. But the tech tends to hang around. Voice recognition did not change the world in the 90s, but neither did it entirely vanish once it was realised that there had been over-promising, say.
I suspect he sees a lot of scattered pieces of fundamental research outside of LLM's that he thinks could be integrated for a core within a year, the 10 years is to temper investors (that he can buy leeway for with his record) and fine tune and work out the kinks when actually integrating everything that might not have some obvious issues.
Pretty cool! I must manually refresh to see new posts. Implementing real-time updates (e.x. via WebSocket or Server-Sent Events) would significantly improve usability.
It sounds cool, but for usability its not great. Think about how reddit recalculates the results order as you're paging through, and you see items from the previous page show up on the next. Now imagine that happening in realtime. Maybe there's a link you want to read, but you get pulled away for 10 minutes. By the time you get back the link is higher or lower, or may be completely missing.
That is a good point, however there are design solutions around it. For example:
- Poll every X seconds instead of real-time
- Enable user to toggle real-time mode
- Load new posts in with a "+" button at the top to fetch the latest posts (like Twitter)
That's a good idea. Maybe bind that to a key (what about Ctrl-R). And maybe you can put this feature into UAs, since it would be useful for more websites.
One of my first ever bug reports, was a submission to a company that made legal software.
In particular, it was a document management system built as a plugin for MS Outlook. (ew)
Most users, had no issue. However for one user, a lawyer, in particular, she would open and close a bunch of documents (using the built in pdf viewer) and then the application would crash, taking outlook with it, often requiring a restart.
I went over to view the behavior, and she was some kind of robot. Unlike her peers, she had 12 documents open at once, and she could update and bill (in minimum 6 or 7 minute increments) 12 customers cases in 15 minutes. It was like meeting the Usain Bolt of law practitioners. My back of the napkin math is that she billed like 3-4 hours for every hour she was online.
Open Email
Load Attachment
Review Attachment
Reply to email
Assign Email thread to case number
Close attachment.
12 times in 15 minutes.
The bug was that, after loading ~6 pdfs, the application would back off and wait to deallocate the memory. It would then later, randomly decide to write to that memory when another pdf was loaded, and go kaput.
Just to replicate the issue, I had to close and reopen pdfs so quickly my hands hurt.
It took 3 revisions of the bug report to get the software company to accept it and resolve it. And even then I think the pdf limit just increased, before we submitted another report and had it resolved permanently.
On that note, the principal of another law firm I supported would require us to cleanse his personal laptop of porn themed golf games he had downloaded on a regular basis.
The impression I get is that, lawyers work but the work is just unevenly distributed.
Digging deep in to my memory, I recall that the user had at least one instance of Strip Putt Putt. I cant conceive of how that answers your question but its the best I can do.
I get the sentiment behind your comment but I have a few lawyers in the family and they work round the clock. They might be in meetings or pouring over documents all day that might not look like work to the average software engineer but trust me, they do work hard. And it's true for everyone - from junior interns to senior partners.
> They might be in meetings or pouring over documents all day
FWIW it’s “poring over” when reading carefully.
From Merriam-Webster
“As a verb, pore means "to gaze intently" or "to reflect or meditate steadily." The verb pour has meanings referring to the falling or streaming of liquid (or things that move like liquid).”
Wouldn’t you? If I switch context and interrupt my flow to answer a question I’m losing at least 20 mins to regaining focus, why shouldn’t that be reflected in billing?
Knowledge work is knowledge work, no point belittling colleagues in a different profession.
Thats how MSPs operate too. At least the good ones. Billing increments are sometimes as low as 6 minutes, or as high as 30. 15 minutes is average in my experience.
Many of which were found to have been compromised with malware and have after having been installed millions of times. Extensions are an attack surface emdash I don’t see why it’s better to have more than anyone could possibly ever audit.
I expect it to settle out in a few years where: 1. The fiduciary duties of company shareholders will bring them to a point of stopping to chase AI hype and instead derive an understanding of whether it's driving real top-line value for their business or not. 2. Mid to senior career engineers will have no choice but to level up their AI skills to stay relevant in the modern workforce.
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